World Bank becomes one of the first international bodies to predict the global economy will actually recede in 2009. IMF had earlier issued a forecast of 0.5% growth globally. This will be the first time after WWII that the global economy declines on an annual basis. Additionally, it states that the international trade will decline at the fastest pace in 80 years.
This is happening as the coffers of IMF and to some extent World Bank are not sufficient to help poorer nations withstand the crisis. WB projects that upto $700 Billion may be needed to lend to those countries who will not be able to borrow from traditional sources. Sovereign borrowing globally is likely to be difficult as the debt markets will get crowded out with US and European borrowings. And perversely, this may strengthen the US dollar as a currency even more as it is one of the safer currencies when all countries are hit with recession.
It just tells me that the international assets (in emerging economies) are likely to become even cheaper and probably faster than assets in North America and Europe. However, as the global economy starts to recover, those emerging economies that took their lumps and survive, may very well become the best places to put your money in. US and Europe will have other problems to worry about than (deficits and inflation)
Shailesh Kumar is an Entrepreneur, investor and blogger. He writes about value investing at Value Stock Guide. Learn about the stock market and discover the techniques proven to work best for long term investors for finding appropriate stocks to buy in their portfolio to get superior risk adjusted returns.